Disinformation and potential vulnerabilities in the Greenlandic foreign policy debate on Facebook

Based on 107 Facebook groups and pages from Greenlandic media, politicians and discussion forums, this report examines whether and to what extent influence campaigns exist on Facebook in Greenland. We know very little about the extent of disinformation in Greenland, and this report is the first major empirical data collection to investigate this.

The analysis is structured around two independent research questions:

1. Can it be shown that foreign states spread disinformation in the Greenlandic foreign policy debate?

2. Are there topics in the Greenlandic Facebook foreign policy debate that have a character that could make them potential targets for foreign disinformation?

Our analysis suggests that certain foreign policy debates evoke strong emotions, are highly divisive and can be polarising. All of this makes these debates potential targets for foreign disinformation and influence. We see this as a potential vulnerability. We do so in particular because Russian influence campaigns, such as the one we've seen in the EU in 2024, work by pushing and trying to polarise issues and discussions that are already characterised by strong emotions and disagreement.

Of all the foreign policy issues, the debate about independence and The Unity of the Realm is by far the one that generates the most energy. It also acts as a prism through which many other issues are viewed, including NATO, the EU and relations with the major powers. This means that there is a vibrant public debate that engages the population - and conversely, it is also a debate that could be a potential target for disinformation in the future. This does not mean that the debate is dangerous or should be avoided, but that our knowledge of disinformation needs to be improved and kept up to date in the Greenlandic context in the future. In the not too distant future, the threat of disinformation may increase as digital translation tools improve significantly.

We did not find any examples of disinformation in the data we analysed.

Therefore, our results can be used as a baseline against which future studies can be compared. It is also important to stress that the situation may well be different in a year or two.

Future research on disinformation in Greenland and the Arctic is important, and in general time series should be established, as well as ongoing research on whether concerns about disinformation are justified.

Comparative studies could also inspire measurement, operationalisation and possible policy solutions across the Arctic.